01.07.2019

The Federal Reserve has again raised interest rates by threequarters
of a percentage point, the latest in a series of hikes
attempting to cool rapid inflation. Recessionary fears were
further stoked by the latest GDP figures showing a 0.2 percent
decline in the second quarter, after a 0.4 percent decline in the
first.

While the labor market remains strong and company profits are
very high, consumer spending is lagging faced with rapidly
rising prices and tightening credit conditions. The short-term
impact on the construction market has been seen in the recent
slowdown in new housing activity and other indicators of
activity. Ducker now expects 2022 full year volume activity to
end flat compared to 2021, giving back the gains made in the
first half of the year. We forecast that while non-residential
building activity will pick back up later this year and through
2023, declining residential new construction activity through
2023 particularly will drive a modest fall in overall residential
expenditures (current dollar basis) before recovery from a
relatively mild recession begin in 2024.

DOWNLOAD Q2 2022 Construction Industry Outlook HERE